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Friday, 11 December 2009
Asymmetric risk
Three years ago we sold our spring barley on a forward contract. We reckoned on a reasonable yield and were happy with the forward price. Between the contract date and harvest we had a drought and the spot price of the crop soared. Harvest came; we sold what we had, but were short on our contract tonnage. The buyer then bought in against us charging for the shortfall at the then, much greater spot price. A contract is a contract – nothing wrong with that.

One year ago we sold our barley on a forward contract. We reckoned on a reasonable yield and were happy with the forward price. Between the contract date and harvest we had favourable growing conditions and the recession began. The spot price of the crop fell. Harvest came; we put the contract tonnage in store and waited for collection as per the terms. Now a month after the end of the contract period there is no sign of the buyer. A contract is a contract – now wouldn’t that be nice?
Posted By Nigel at 7:49 PM in Category:Farming issues
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